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Posts from March 2007

March 31, 2007

Is DVD Ripping in Apple TV's Future?

Picture_14 That's one of the questions raised by last week's ruling in a closely-watched California civil suit.

The case pitted the DVD Copy Control Association (DVD CCA) against Kaleidescape, a Mountain View, Calif., company whose home entertainment systems let you rip large numbers of DVDs onto hard-disk arrays for use within a personal network. In the past four years Kaleidescape has sold more than 2,600 of its fault-tolerant servers for $10,000 and up, while the CCA worked assiduously to try to shut them down.

Judge
Leslie C. Nichols of  San Jose Superior Court ruled Thursday on narrow technical grounds that Kaleidescape had not violated its licensing agreement with the CCA . (See EETimes' report for details.)

Continue reading "Is DVD Ripping in Apple TV's Future?" »

March 30, 2007

Mac v. Vista: By the Numbers

Two interesting bar graphs posted by John Martellaro at the Mac Observer say volumes about what Apple (AAPL) is up against as it tries to take market share from Microsoft (MSFT) Windows.

The first is a chart from Roughly Drafted Magazine extrapolating sales of Macs, Apple TV and iPhones over the next few years.
Picture_12_2

"The really cool part," writes Martellaro, "is that the total unit shipments of these devices is rising rapidly, and to Apple's great satisfaction, the Macintosh will soon no longer have to do all the heavy lifting for the corporation. But look at the absolute numbers. In 2008, Apple might sell 8 million Macs. Write that on an envelope."

Picture_13_4

The second chart shows IDC data projecting Vista sales as they replace earlier Windows versions (unit sales apparently x 1,000).


"The chart," writes Martellero, "says that Micrsoft will issue about 90 million new Vista licenses in 2007. In 2008, to contrast to the Apple numbers above, the Vista shipments jumps to about 150 million. Write that number down too."

Bottom line: 150 million vs 8 million. Apple remains at 5.3 percent through 2008.

Martellaro concludes:

These numbers tell a story that we'd rather not dwell on. They say that while Apple is growing and branching out, and while it's not a zero sum game, there is no massive trend to indicate that the Apple buzz is doing much to turn the tables on Microsoft.

What the buzz is doing is something else. It's insuring that Apple products will be widely accepted and become successful. Given Apple's gross margins, that will make a lot of money for Apple. Secondly, the buzz helps keep the enthusiasm going for a superior OS, Mac OS X, until Apple has had a chance to embarrass Microsoft's Vista. Finally, it keeps the stock growing so that the stock holders remain happy and all those (legal) options for employees are actually worth something.

But when it comes to the hard cold reality of the numbers, Apple isn't going to make a dent in the body armor of Microsoft in the next half decade. (link to the rest of the article)

March 29, 2007

Dvorak Jumps the Shark, with Video

Picture_27_2 John Dvorak has a long history of Apple baiting. In 1984 he famously predicted that nobody would ever use a mouse. In 1999 he dismissed the iBook as "girly." He once told Dave Winer -- on camera -- the procedure he uses to deliberately piss off Mac users in order to drive up the "numbers" on his stories. (YouTube video pasted below.)

But even readers inured to Dvorak's trolls were taken aback by the MarketWatch column yesterday in which he advised  Apple (AAPL) to pull the plug on the iPhone lest it risk its reputation as "a hot company that can do no wrong." (link here)

Not for the first time, Dvorak has commentators piling on -- and inadvertently driving traffic to his piece --  but the tenor of their complaints suggests that this time Dvorak may have done himself real damage. Even the normally unflappable Michael Gartenberg at Jupiter Research felt obliged to weigh in (link).

My favorite take on the incident, however, comes from Wired's Cult of Mac:

As long as I've been reading about technology and Apple, John Dvorak has served as my reference point for the views of reactionary technocrats everywhere. He doesn't get Apple, he's never gotten Apple, and he tries really hard to convince other people that there's nothing about Apple to get. All he cares about are specifications and explicit features -- the idea that devices with better interfaces are better than cheaper ones has never occured to him.

But even by his own standards, his latest column is well past the deep end. You know that moment in Warner Bros. cartoons where Wile E. Coyote chases after a cloud of dust that he thinks leads to the Road Runner, but he eventually instead runs clear off of a cliff, but it's OK for a little while, he just floats, but then he makes the mistake of looking down and crashes to the cliff floor? Dvorak's only still in mid-air because he hasn't looked down.

Here's his advice to Apple regarding the iPhone: Pull the plug. BEFORE IT EVEN LAUNCHES. I know, I didn't believe it, either. Keep reading for the top 5 reasons Dvorak has such a bizarre perspective. (full piece here)

Here, as promised, is Dvorak explaining the method of his madness.

 

Video: iPhone in Orlando

So here's the video of that famous appearance of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone at the CTIA wireless technology conference in Orlando earlier this week. AT&T COO Randall Stephenson made headlines when he announced that "one million people have asked us to call them when this phone is available" (exactly 1 million? hmmm).

But what impressed me was that Stephenson confessed as he held up his iPhone that despite all the hype, money and market share riding on this device, this was the first time he'd actually touched one of them. 

Apple TV Hackers Panic

Picture_26 Panic swept through the small community of Apple TV Mod'ders (see here) yesterday when they discovered that the machines they'd been lovingly customizing had reverted overnight to their original settings. One heavily Digg'ed post at Tutorial Ninjas set the tone:

Several of us over in the Awkward TV IRC(l0rdr0ck, myself, and others) have had our Mod’d Apple TV’s played with over night(SSH/VNC disabled), our guess is apple has started to fight back the mod’d Apple TV’s. This is a warning to all of you to block your Apple TV from the internet by going into your routers settings and denying it internet access! (link)

Continue reading "Apple TV Hackers Panic" »

March 28, 2007

Video: MadTV's iPhone spoof

You know you've achieved cult status in this society when you're spoofed every weekend on MadTV. Here, for those who missed it, is their latest Steve Jobs riff, not quite as funny as the last one (link). Too bad the old SNL crew isn't around to do it right.

Microsoft's iPhone: The Movie

ZenZui, the Microsoft (MSFT) spin-off that gives mobile users a another way of navigating the Web, got a lot of press yesterday -- partly because the interface has Microsoft DNA in it and partly because it offers outside developers opportunities that Apple's (AAPL) closed iPhone doesn't.

You can read more about ZenZui at Next.NetTechCrunch and Ars Technica. But in this case a picture (or rather, a promotional video) may be worth a giga words.

March 27, 2007

Apple TV's Box-Top Bomb

A friend who  took delivery of his Apple TV last week passes this along:

Picture_25_2 Apparently someone at Apple has an interesting sense of humor - or I am missing something. Look closely at the photo credit on the [bottom] of this scan of one side of the AppleTV box. The beautiful photo on the top of the box is of the AppleTV. There are no other photos I can see except some movie clips otherwise credited on the inside flap.

The NNSA is the organization within the DOE that "stewards" our nuclear weapons. The Nevada Test Site is where all the bomb tests were done.

I was cleaning up and about to discard the box when this jumped out at me.

MYSTERY SOLVED? Reader Eric Siry suggests that it may be a credit for the photo of a nuclear explosion in the TV series Jericho, which is pictured on the box.

Apple and the Copyright Wars

Picture_23 Josh Quittner has posted something on his Netly News blog that should scare the Levi 501 jeans off Steve Jobs -- and anyone else whose business model depends on Hollywood winning the copyright wars.

Quittner, who sits in the office next to me at Business 2.0, spent yesterday afternoon exploring websites from which Warner Brother's 300 -- a cult movie hit that's not yet available on cable or DVD -- can be already streamed into your computer free of charge. The first site he points you to is here.

"If it's taken down by the time you read this," he writes, "some other site will be streaming it for free. Guaranteed. Try here for instance. Or here.  It cost $60 million to make, but it's yours for free, apparently...

"It's only the latest movie to be pirated and given away online at sites all over the Internet. And it's graphic proof that the worst thing that ever happened to the TV and cable networks and movie studios was Google buying YouTube, and Viacom suing Google. Why? Because the Digital Diaspora has begun.  (full Netly News post here)

Quittner's theory is that this proliferation of pirate movie sites was triggered by the Viacom-Google suit, which pushed copyright content off You Tube, where it could be monitored, and onto hundreds of hard disks all around the globe.

What does this mean for Apple (AAPL)?  For one thing it underscores one weakness of the Apple TV box in its current configuration: it won't let you go out and grab videos from the Internet. More broadly, it calls into question a business model built on the assumption that getting bootleg movies off the Net will continue to be such a pain that most honest users will go ahead and pay $9.99 to buy their videos at the iTunes Music Store.

Of course, if Quittner is correct that the copyright wars are already lost -- and that what happened to the music industry is already happening to Hollywood -- the damage to Apple will pale next to the cost to the big content providers. To companies like, say, Time Warner, our corporate parent.

ADDENDUM: Astute readers have pointed out that Apple's business model here is to sell the razor, not the razor blades. If that's true, it's Time Warner, not Apple, that has the most to lose if the cat is truly out of the bag.

Hacking Apple TV

Picture_11 Given that Apple's (AAPL) set-top box is basically a stripped-down Mac with a 40-gig hard drive and limited functionality (ouch, I hate that word), it hasn't taken hard-core users long to break it open and have their way with it. There's already a blog for Apple TV hacks called, appropriately enough, appletvhacks.net. The big draw this morning is the video posted by Ozy from AwkwardTV showing how he managed to coax the machine into booting from an external drive, opening the door to further hacks that don't require cracking open the case (and voiding the warranty). I've pasted it at the bottom of this post, but it's not for the faint of heart.

Meanwhile, the team at Ars Technica's Infinite Loop have posted what may be the ultimate Apple TV review (at least so far), written from the perspective of someone who has been living for some time a system with far more functionality (that word again!): a dedicated Mac Mini wired up to an HDTV. Their conclusion:

Out of the box, the Apple TV isn't meant to be used as a computer. It cannot share an Internet connection with another device, and it cannot broadcast music to Apple's Airport Express. You cannot attach an eyeTV to it, or any other TV tuner for that matter (and therefore it cannot record TV shows). It can't play most codecs out of the box, you can't buy content directly from the iTunes Store, and it has very limited tech specs. These are all things that I can do and/or upgrade on my Mac mini, so switching from the mini to the Apple TV first seems like a major functionality (sic) downgrade.

That said, the Apple TV is ridiculously easy to use and the menu system makes me prefer it over the mini. Let's be honest here: laziness prevails, even when we don't want to admit it...

... We'd almost like to give the Apple TV two scores: one for our audience, and one for everybody else. Geeks are more likely than anyone else to hate the Apple TV out of the box. There are currently too many limitations to justify the price to many of us, although the potential is there for Apple to push down a few major software/firmware updates and make this device into (almost) everything we wish it could be. Hacking the Apple TV is pretty simple though, so for the technically inclined, perhaps some of those limitations could be solved with just a little bit of old fashioned elbow grease.

However, almost everyone else who witnessed the Apple TV in action in our presence fell in love with it instantaneously (about half of which were not Mac users).  (full review here)

Here, as promised, is the video of Apple TV booting off an external drive. It's about 3:30 long.

March 26, 2007

Report: Apple Without Steve Jobs Loses $16 Billion in Value

Picture_10_2 According to Barron's, no company in the world is more dependent on its CEO, in terms of share value, than Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Barron's each year surveys business leaders to "identify CEOs who have top-notch reputations in the financial community and who likely would be missed by investors if they unexpectedly left their jobs."

In this year's list of "top CEOs who matter," released this weekend, Steve Jobs leads the pack—he is the "ultimate CEO who matters." His sudden departure, Barron's speculates, would immediately lop 20 points off Apple's stock price, or roughly $16 billion in  market capitalization.

Health concerns (link) and stock option back-dating issues (link) have raised questions in the past about how long Jobs will continue to lead Apple. Jobs has said he is working on succession plans, but declined to name any Apple executives whom he thinks might be ready to step into his shoes.

Barron's Top 30 list in alphabetical order:
• Buffett, Warren - Berkshire Hathaway
• Chenault, Kenneth - American Express
• David, George - United Technologies
• Ergen, Charlie - Echostar
• Fink, Larry - Blackrock
• Frankfort, Lew - Coach
• Fuld, Richard - Lehman Brothers
• Goodwind, Fred - Royal Bank of Scotland
• Immelt, Jeffrey - General Electric
• Iwata, Satory - Nintendo               
• Jobs, Steven - Apple
• Kagermann, Henning - SAP
• Kovacevich, Richard - Wells Fargo
• Lafley, A.G. - Procter & Gamble
• Leahy, Terry - Tesco
• Mackey, John - Whole Foods
• Mittal, Lakshmi - Arcelor Mittal
• Moss, Allan - Macquarie
• Mozilo, Angelo - Countrywide Financial
• Murdoch, Rupert - News Corp.
• O'Leary, Michael - Ryanair Holdings
• Riboud, Franck - Groupe Danone
• Rose, Peter - Expeditors International
• Roth, Steven - Vornando Realty
• Schiro, James - Zurich Financial
• Simpson, Bob - XTO Energy
• Sinegal, James - Costco Wholesale
• Smith, Fred - FedEx
• Tata, Ratan - Tata Sons
• Yun, Jong-Yong - Samsung Electronics

Full article (subscription required) here.
 

March 24, 2007

Comic relief: Apple Introduces the iRack

It's been a rough week. Now, as Monty Python used to say, for something completely different: Mad TV's Steve Jobs parody, for those who missed it the first time round.

Apple: Leopard Still On Schedule

Martin Gartenberg at Jupiter Research got through to Apple (AAPL) yesterday afternoon and got their response to the report that the new operating system would be delayed until Fall:

Reports coming in that Leopard's delayed until sometime in October. Just spoke with Apple who confirmed the reports are wrong and Leopard is still scheduled to ship in this spring as they previously announced. The rumor mill is wrong again. (link)

This has the ring of credibility, something that the Digitimes report that started this rumor, in retrospect, did not. Arnold Kim, the founder of MacRumors.com, has been keeping a score card on Digitimes over the past five years and this is how he calls it:

15″ MacBook in 2nd Quarter 2007 (2007) - Unknown
LED-Lacklit Apple Laptops (2007) - Possible
Apple Notebook with Robson Caching (2006) - Possible
AMD Apple Laptop (2006) - Wrong
Wireless iPods (2006) - Wrong
Apple 17″ Widescreen LCD (2006) - Wrong
2GB and 4GB iPod Shuffles (2005) - Partially True - 2GB and 4GB Nanos
Apple Widescreen iBook (2005) - Wrong
PowerBook G5 and iBook G5 (2005) - Wrong
Intel Mac Mini, iBook, iMac due June 6 2006 (2005) - Wrong
15.4″ Powerbook (2003) - Wrong
Wireless Apple Tablet (2003) - Wrong
Termination of 17″ iMac (2003) - Wrong
19″ iMacs (2002) - Wrong

Here are the stats:

14 rumors total. 1 True. 10 Wrong. 2 Possible. 1 Unknown. (link)

I regret having played a part in broadcasting the Digitimes report and have issued a correction. (link)

Continue reading "Apple: Leopard Still On Schedule" »

March 23, 2007

Report: Vista Delays Leopard Until Fall

CORRECTION: Apple has responded to this report and denied it (link). We regret having passed it along. Our apologies.

- - - -

Capture the switchers.

That's the purported reason for a new, extended delay of Apple's (AAPL) next generation operating system, according to a report from Taipei-based Digitimes.com. Although at least one analyst is still talking about Leopard coming out in mid-April (see here), Digitimes, citing unnamed "industry sources," claims that the release of Leopard has been pushed back to October so that it can be compatible with Vista, Microsoft's (MSFT) new operating system.

The sources pointed out that the launch delay is not due to software design problems with Leopard but instead is attributed to Apple's plan to have its new OS support Windows Vista through an integrated version of Boot Camp. (See here.)

Boot Camp is the software assistant provided by Apple to help users install Windows on Intel Macs. The beta version that comes in Macs today is compatible with Windows XP, but would need to be overhauled to run smoothly with Vista. Vista has received a lukewarm reception so far, capturing less than 1% of the OS market as of February (see here). But Dell, HP and the other PC hardware manufacturers are bundling it with their new machines, and the theory is that to stay competitive -- i.e. attract buyers who might take this opportunity to switch to the only computers that can run both Mac and Windows software -- Apple computers would to be able to run Vista right out of the box.

A request for comment from Apple has received no reply. Lacking that, we have no way of knowing if there is any truth to the Digitimes report. Ars Technica, quoting developers familiar with the pattern of interim "builds" in advance of a new Apple OS ship date, has speculated that it might be June before the kinks in the OS itself had been worked out (see here). The reported Boot Camp delay would push it back another four months.

The report, if true, would suggest that Apple might be willing to suffer the public relations cost of an extended delay -- and the possible loss of sales as Mac loyalists put off buying new machines to wait for the new OS -- in order to get to the vastly larger market of PC users.

MacRumors adds this:

"It should be noted that Digitimes has been notoriously inaccurate with their reports in the past, but a number of recent Digitimes rumors have been corroborated, if not confirmed." (link)

March 22, 2007

Apple TV: One Day Later

The PR value to Steve Jobs of giving one journalist exclusive access to a new product became clearer today as  people who don't work for the Wall Street Journal got their hands on Apple's (AAPL) new set-top box.

In contrast to Walt Mossberg and Katie Boehret, who had 10 days to play with the machine all to themselves and gave it a big wet kiss (see here), the second round of reviews are more balanced and give readers a better sense of Apple TV's limitations. David Pogue in the New York Times, for example, concludes that "basically, it’s an iPod for your TV":

"The heartbreaker for millions, however, is that Apple TV requires a widescreen TV — preferably an HDTV. It doesn’t work with the squarish, traditional TVs that many people still have." (full review here)

There are plenty of naysayers still predicting that Apple TV will "bomb" (see for example here). The better metaphor may be the hockey one invoked by the unnamed Apple manager quoted by Pogue: the company is “skating to where the puck is going to be."

In its first iteration, Apple TV seems to be a product for the masses that still don't have equipment needed to run it. It also doesn't yet do what the masses expect it to do.

The Fake Steve Jobs, in a post titled "Why We Love Walt Mossberg," summarizes the problems soft-peddled in the WSJ review. The new product, FSJ points out, ...

* won't work with older TVs;
* can't record cable or satellite TV;
* can't play DVDs;
* can't stream video or audio directly from the Internet;
* won't let you buy media directly from iTunes;
* won't play music in Microsoft's formats, even from a Windows PC;
* won't let you change volume using the Apple remote;
* won't let you plug in an extra hard drive for more capacity. (link)

Yet for those willing to gamble that Apple will eventually fill in the blanks, the thing can put on a great show, one that's demoed to maximum advantage in the Apple-produced tour I've pasted below (a higher-res version is available at Apple's website here):

March 21, 2007

Apple TV: The First Reviews

The first one in is from Walt Mossberg and Katie Boehret at the Wall Street Journal, who've been playing with the device at Walt's home for 10 days and seem to have drunk the Apple (AAPL) Kool Aid. (link here, sub required) For those who don't have a subscription or don't like to read, they've provided this video:

You have to read -- or listen -- between the lines of the WJS review, but the thing doesn't quite seem ready for prime time. The main limitations are neatly summed up today by Charles Jade at Ars Technica, riffing on an analyst's report that suggested that Apple TV would be the death of  TiVo, NetFlix, DVD players and all the rest. Jade points out that ...    

  • The Apple TV requires a computer, no direct link to the iTunes Store for purchasing content.
  • It's $299 for a set-top box that doesn't even include a DVD player.
  • As of today, the iTunes Store has around 400 movies and 200 TV shows, compared with some 75,000 titles on NetFlix. 
  • While HD may be in the works for the iTunes Store, content currently compares unfavorably to DVDs.
  • No rentals, meaning it's $10 and up per title, even if you only want to watch a movie once.
  • Much of the non-movie content from the iTunes Store, TV shows and music videos, is not in widescreen format, even though the Apple TV requires a widescreen TV.

Ars Technica concludes: "This is not to say the Apple TV will be a failure, just that the time to be welcoming our Apple TV Overlords may have to wait on the Revision B." (link)

March 19, 2007

How Many Apple TVs Will Apple Sell?

If Apple (AAPL) is trying to lower expectations it's not doing a very good job. Estimates are all over the lot, and they seem to grow with every shipment delay. 

Apple's initial order, back in January, was for 100,000 machines (link). By the end of the month, Shaw Wu of American Technology Research was talking about sales of 1 million units (link).

Sushil Wagle of J&W Seligman told Dow Jones Newswires today he's looking for first-year sales of 1 and 1.5 million (link).

Now Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore (link) and Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster may have jumped the shark. Each is calling for Apple to sell 2 million Apple TVs in calendar 2007 (ignoring the fact that calendar 2007 gets shorter with every delay).

Munster, who expects AAPL to  hit $124  this year, adds this optimistic formula: "For every 500,000 additional units Apple sells, it adds $0.02 to our calendar year 2007 earnings-per-share estimate." (link)

Apple TV Due (Finally) Tomorrow

Picture_9 With the first Apple TV units due in stores tomorrow (March 20), according to Investor's Business Daily (link), Apple (AAPL) cleared the way by issuing updates of several key pieces of software -- and offering some hints about what its set-top box can and can't do.

The latest update to Quicktime, for example, includes an "Export to Apple TV" function which, according to iLounge.com, ...

... creates not only full DVD-quality 720 by 404 videos, but also 1280 by 720 videos. ... The 1280 by 720 pixel resolution, also known as 720P, is one of several high-definition video formats supported by current televisions. Using the H.264 video compression codec, Apple TV supports 720P playback at 24 frames per second - the frame rate used by movies, not TV shows. (link)

The implication is that Apple will soon be in the business of selling high-definition movies and TV shows, or at least its version of high definition.

Also updated to pave the way for Apple TV was iTunes, which in its 7.1 and 7.1.1 versions includes a "Look for Apple TV" panel in iTunes Preferences and an Apple TV Help section. The latter, however, is mostly an empty shell. It offers an Apple TV User's Manual, for example, but as of this morning there were no Apple TV manuals to be had.

iTunes 7.1.1, by the way, has fixed some of the problems with Vista noted earlier, but not all of them. Ejecting an iPod in Vista can still corrupt an iPod's data file. (link here)

March 18, 2007

Lessig on Viacom v. Google

Picture_8 Today's Sunday NY Times Op-Ed page has a piece by Larry Lessig on Viacom's (VIA) $1 billion lawsuit against Google (GOOG) that's interesting on several levels.

Most analysts assume that the suit is a ploy to give Viacom leverage as it negotiates the fees Google will  ultimately agree pay to run Jon Stewart clips on YouTube. (See, for example, Joe Nocera here.) I suspect that's probably right, although the suit makes larger claims:

“YouTube,” the complaint alleges, “has harnessed technology to willfully infringe copyrights on a huge scale,” threatening not just Viacom, but “the economic underpinnings of one of the most important sectors of the United States economy.”

The first thing that's interesting about Lessig's take is that he places it in the broader context of the Copyright Act. For most of the Act's history, it was up to Congress to set the rules and courts to enforce them. As Lessig points out, Justice Hugo Black argued long ago that it was not up to the Supreme Court to keep the Constitution “in tune with the times.” That changed 20 months ago, Lessig argues, when ...

... the court expanded the Copyright Act in the Grokster case to cover a form of liability it had never before recognized in the context of copyright — the wrong of providing technology that induces copyright infringement. 

The effect, says Lessig, is that it ...

... has created an incentive for companies like Viacom, no longer satisfied with a statute, to turn to the courts to get the law updated. Congress, of course, is perfectly capable of changing or removing the safe harbor provision to meet Viacom’s liking. But Viacom recognizes there’s no political support for the change it wants. It thus turns to a policy maker that doesn’t need political support — the Supreme Court. (full piece here)

Lessig is clearly on Google's side in this dog fight, which leads to the second thing that's interesting about his piece.  Lessig, for whom I have great respect, is a Stanford Law professor and founding director of the Law School's Center for Internet and Society (CIS). But nowhere on the NY Times Op-Ed page, or in fact on the CIS's website, does it mention that Google last summer pledged $2 million to support Lessig's center. (see Stanford Press release here.)

The Fake Steve Jobs, who like Apple (AAPL) knows a thing or two about buying good publicity, rages at length this morning on the hypocrisy of it all.

[NYT ombudsman] Byron Calame, are you reading this? Shouldn't your Op-Ed writers disclose their conflicts of interest? Something like this: "Lawrence Lessig operates a law center that is funded by Google, the defendant in this case."

Here's the thing about the freetards. In their view, since they're on the side of the angels, there's no need to disclose their conflicts of interest. Because how dare you suggest they're motivated by something as unseemly as -- gasp -- money?

Fake Steve then riffs into absurdity, ending with an imitation of Google CEO Eric Schmidt calling Lessig like a dog:

"Lessig! Sit! Gimme a paw! Write me an amicus brief! Good doggie!" Then he cracks himself up again and goes, "Oh, you know, Steve, it's f___ing great to be rich, isn't it?" (link here)

UPDATE: Prof. Lessig, it seems, also reads Fake Steve, who has posted this e-mail exchange:

Professor Lawrence Lessig writes from Berlin to correct my post from earlier today:

"Hey, fake steve, so your post is funny, but really wrong. I have never -- ever -- received a dime from Google. The Center the WSJ wrote about has been around since I came to Stanford (2000). It is funded by Stanford. I get no funding from the Center; my salary doesn't depend at all on what money the Center gets. The Center has been critical of Google (w/ r/t privacy, e.g.) and supportive (w/r/t fair use). The fact that Google gave money to Stanford to support the work of the Stanford matters as much to my work as the fact that (spectrum mogul) Berkman gave money to Harvard to endow the chair I had at Harvard. You may or may not believe that, but the statement, Lessig "is on the payroll of Google" is just flatly false."

Fake Steve regrets the error. We've amended the original item. (link)

Ex ped: FYI, the Center for Internet and Society was founded in 2000, which is when Lessig joined Stanford. Lessig's official biography at Stanford lists him as the "founding director." Lessig is still the director and was so when Google made its $2 million pledge last December. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that fact to be disclosed in an Op-Ed that relates to a lawsuit in which Google stands to lose $1 billion.

March 16, 2007

Photo: Is This the Googphone?

Picture_7_2 A blogger who claims to have been solicited by Google (GOOG) to participate in a paid survey has posted a screen grab of what purports to be a prototype of a Google phone, developed by Samsung, to compete with Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. The image comes from a poster on mobileburn.com. It looks like a Photoshop job (click to enlarge), but that doesn't necessarily mean it didn't come from Google. More speculation about its provenance from engadget.com here. An earlier engadget post confirming (sort of) the existence of the Google R&D project here.

For more on the Google phone, click here.

March 15, 2007

Gates Claims Vista Is World's "Most-Used Software"

Picture_19 According to Net Applications' Market Share February survey, Microsoft's (MSFT) Vista has captured a little under 1% of the operating system market.  (link here) Not too shabby for a new OS.

But according to Bill Gates, it's doing a whole lot better. In fact, it's already taken over the world. Here's a portion of a radio interview conducted last week by Bob Garfield, Ad Age columnist and co-host of WNYC's On the Media:

GARFIELD: This is based on pretty much zero data, but it doesn't seem to me that either Vista's or Zune's campaign has so far generated a whole lot of buzz. Are they generating any business?

GATES: Vista's doing extremely well. Zune has gained a great No. 2 position as a product that's completely new for us. Vista's the most-used piece of software there is in the world, and so it has this incredible impact as people talk about how it simplifies things that they've done. We've seen a much stronger reception in terms of people upgrading the software, buying new PCs than we expected there. I think a lot of that had to do with how much we worked with users in advance and understood exactly what they were interested in. (link here.)

Gates-watchers will want to check out the full transcript, especially the end where Garfield asks about the Get A Mac ads. Gates refuses to discuss the ads and then can barely bring himself to give Garfield  the "clean goodbye" he needs to close off the interview. Audio available within the AdAge.com link.

What a Multitouch Computer Screen Might Do

A full-size virtual keyboard is the least of it.

The 2004 patent Apple (AAPL) filed for a "multipoint touch screen" covers not just the iPhone screen, but a touch sensitive display that can respond to as many as 15 inputs at once. (See Behind the iPhone Screen Patent here.)

But you don't need 15 fingers to do some pretty amazing things, as NYU's Jeff Han demonstrated  at last year's TED. The 9:30 video of his demo is available on You Tube. I've pasted a link below. Save it for when you have a few minutes to spare.

For more on Han's work, possible discussions with Apple and a link to a newer video, see BillDay.com here.

Behind the iPhone Screen Patent

What could a Mac laptop with a screen as smart as the iPhone's do?

A writer at BusinessWeek.com has done us all a favor and spent an afternoon reading the 29-page patent application Apple (AAPL) filed in 2004 for what it calls a "multipoint touch screen."

"The first thing that jumped out at me," writes Arik Hesseldahl, "is how technically sophisticated the screen is."

Impressive as a touch screen that can keep track of two fingers at once may be—try more than one finger on a conventional touch screen—the screen outlined in Apple's patent application will be able to react to as many as 15 simultaneous touches. The document says that's enough for all 10 fingers, the palms of both hands, and three "others," whatever they may be. The software on the iPhone, or whatever other device employs the technology, can respond to each individual signal, independent of the others.

One thing this technology makes possible, Hesseldahl speculates, is a full-size virtual keyboard on a screen that you could touch-type on.

Imagine a smart multitouch display approximately the size of a thin hard-cover book that would give you access to all the files stored on your PC and play the video and music stored on your Apple TV. (full story here)

Some of the technology behind the multipoint screen was developed at Fingerworks, a company founded by two former University of Delaware professors who, according to one report, may now be working for Apple. Both Apple and Fingerworks were named in a patent lawsuit filed in January by Quantum Research. (see here)

For a peek at future applications of this technology, see also What a Multitouch Computer Screen Might Do (link here).

March 14, 2007

E.U. Backs Off Threat Against iTunes

Picture_5_1 The European Union official whose remark that "something has to change" was taken as a threat of E.U. legal action against Apple's (AAPL) closed music system has now backed off.   

Meglena Kuneva, E.U.'s consumer chief, told a news conference yesterday there was no reason to talk about legal action against Apple, and that she merely wanted to raise questions, according to Reuters.

"I would like, really, to start this debate. What is best to develop this market and to have more consumers enjoying this really very important, very modern way of downloading and enjoying the music?" she said of Apple's iTunes.

In this week's edition of the German magazine Focus, Kuneva had been quoted as saying: "Do you think it's fine that a CD plays in all CD players but that an iTunes song only plays in an iPod? I don't. Something has to change."

She stopped short of repeating that on Tuesday.

"Somebody drew the comparison with Microsoft. No, this is not the case because the share of the market of Apple is really not a big one so there is not any reason to talk about infringement," Kuneva said. (full Reuters report here)

The comparison with Microsoft is telling because the E.U. has the power to inflict real pain. In 2004, after  it ruled that Redmond had abused its PC market dominance, the E.U. fined Microsoft nearly $660 million and ordered it to change its business practices.

And although Kuneva is not concerned about Apple's market share, others might be. A recent  WR Hambrecht report noted that Apple commands a 72% share of the MP3 player market and a 83% share of online music sales

Apple isn't out of the European woods yet. Norway, a European country that is not part of the E.U., has set an Oct. 1 deadline by which Apple must change its Digital Rights Management system or face legal action.

March 13, 2007

Key U.S. Agency Bans Vista

Picture_4_2 First it was the Department of Transportation and then the Federal Aviation Administration. Now comes a report, via InformationWeek, that upgrades to Microsoft's (MSFT) Vista have been banned, at least temporarily, at the U.S. government's most influential standard-setting agency, the  National Institute of Standards and Technology.

NIST, originally called the National Bureau of Standards, is the arm of the U.S. government that sets standards on everything from weights and measures to Daylight Saving Time to the accuracy of electronic voting machines. It has a budget of nearly $1 billion and employs 2,800 scientists, engineers, technicians, and support and administrative personnel, according to the agency's website (link).

Internal documents obtained by InformationWeek show that tech staffers at NIST...

...are scheduled to meet on April 10 in Gaithersburg, Md., to discuss their concerns about the new operating system, which Microsoft released to consumers in January amid much fanfare and to businesses in December with lesser flair.

According to the formal agenda for the meeting, NIST technology workers will attend a session entitled "Windows Vista Security" to discuss "the current ban of this operating system on NIST networks." NIST officials weren't immediately available to comment. (full article here)

Any weakness in Microsoft's lock on public sector computing could, in theory, represent a window of opportunity for Apple (AAPL). Or, perhaps more likely, for Linux and other open software standards.

March 12, 2007

MacBook On Fire

Picture_18_3 It's not fair to blame Apple, since Sony makes the batteries, and there's really nothing funny about a fire that could have burned down someone's house. But given the schadenfreude Mac lovers shared watching those Dells burn, it seems only fair to air this tale of smoke and burning plastic, originally posted on the Australian website MacTalk by a mate in Melbourne called mattyb:

3am last night. I woke up to my girlfriend screaming (yelling "Matty!") and the dog barking. She fell asleep on the couch in the back lounge of our house. I jumped out of bed and raced out thinking that maybe somebody had come through the back door or something.

As I was running I saw a fire. At first I thought that the lamp had fallen and set fire to the curtain. As I got closer I realised it was my mac book .... burning! I picked it up and blew on it and swung it around to put the flames out. The book shelf it was sitting on was burnt and there were a couple of magazines that were on fire too. I quickly put those out and calmed down...

What actually happened?
[Skipping details about earlier signs of battery malfunction, including shortened life, failure to recharge etc.]

My girlfriend said she heard it hissing like a steam valve, then smoke started pouring out of it and a couple of seconds later, a very large flash fire started. I'm sure you have read about these and seen the dell video. This is what happened to my macbook.

The battery is swollen and burnt so it's definitely the battery that exploded and caught fire. The macbook is melted on the bottom and severely charred (along with my bookshelves, books, magazines and the wall). The space bar is melted as is the track pad. The screen has been damaged a little too.

I bought it at the end of June last year so it's still under 12 month warranty.
Strange thing is, there was no symptoms like excessive heat or deformation of the battery or anything like that at all.
I also checked quite a while ago to see if my battery was one of the recall units. It was not.

Can anyone recommend an efficient service centre in Melbourne who will be able to replace it quickly? I have a lot of work to finish by the end of March.
I am also hoping they can recover some data from the hard drive.

The smell was the worst part - that burnt plastic smell (full text and more pix here)

Ex ped: Note that the battery was not one of the series that was recalled, a sticky issue for both Apple and Sony.

New Get-a-Mac Ads in U.K.

Picture_2_6 Apple U.K. is trying again. Despite mixed, sometimes hostile and perhaps counterproductive reactions to the British translation of its popular U.S. Get-a-Mac campaign, Apple (AAPL) has released a fresh series of TV ads in Ireland and the U.K. Several follow familiar story lines, but three are new:  "Court" (casting doubt on how easy it is to make photo books), "Magic" (making a big to-do about PC-Mac file exchanges) and "Naughty Step" (about barriers to doing fun stuff on a PC).

In these little movies, as in the earlier series, British TV actors David Mitchell and Robert Webb  (of the Peep Show) have replaced the familiar combo of John Hodgman as PC and Justin Long as Mac. Have the new British ads avoided the "smug" Apple stereotype that tripped up the first series? You can judge for yourself at apple.com/uk.   

Apple TV Due This Week

Picture_1_3 Apple's (AAPL) long awaited TV set-top box, originally scheduled to ship in February and delayed in a rare Apple PR snafoo to the ides of March, will be  showing up in those FedEx trucks any day now. I know a lot of people who can't wait. But a piece in CNET.com  this morning has done a pretty good job of assessing what kind of market impact Apple TV will and won't have. "Don't expect Apple TV to be an overnight success," warns CNET staff writer Tom Krazit. "It's unlikely that Apple TV will disrupt the entrenched players in the living room."

The premise of Apple TV is that as more and more TV content  becomes available as digital files, more and more viewers will want to buy shows on iTunes and either download them to the Apple TV box or stream them from their PC or Mac over the 802.11n connection to the large screen in the living room. But for now, there's tons more content available from traditional sources, and those sources, as Krazit points out, are hardly standing still.

Cable and satellite companies, along with their set-top box partners, have invested heavily in providing their customers with on-demand shows and pay-per-view movies. You're still going to need one of those set-top boxes alongside Apple TV if you want to watch most shows or games when they air. And analysts say the combination of Apple TV and the Internet isn't the best method right now for delivering high-definition content, which the public has shown a clear interest in watching.

To Apple's credit, the company seems to have made it relatively easy for consumers to set up a wireless connection between the content of their computers and the TVs they're used to watching, but the analysts CNET quotes are cautious:

"I don't see where people are going to be willing to give up their pay TV subscription and go to the Internet for programming" anytime soon, said Michelle Abraham, an analyst with In-Stat.

Apple TV "is a glimpse of where we're heading in the future, but it's not compatible with the existing infrastructure for the vast majority of consumers out there," said Jeff Binder, senior director of connected home solutions for set-top box maker Motorola. (Full piece here.)

UPDATE: AppleInsider today attributes the Apple TV delay to problems associated with NVIDIA's graphic chipset and expects manufacturing ramp-up to begin as early as today. See here.

March 09, 2007

Was the iPhone Keynote a "Colossal Mistake"?

Picture_35_1 That was the contention of Mike Egan, writing in ComputerWorld a week after the event. It came down to pre-announcement and  vaporware, something Apple (AAPL) in the past has been  pretty good about -- or at least better than its competitors. Egan gave six reasons why he thought Steve Jobs' Keynote was a blunder:

1. Jobs raised buyer expectations too high.
2. Jobs raised Wall Street expectations too high.
3. Jobs gave competitors a head start.
4. Jobs undermined Apple TV hype.
5. Jobs put iPod sales at risk.
6. Jobs wrecked Cisco talks (full article here)

Predictably, the Computerworld piece set off a small storm of protest among Apple apologists. And today MacDailyNews, with advantage of hindsight, has issued a point-by-point rebuttal.  (link here)





Mac Laptops: Grabbing Market Share

Lots of interesting detail buried in W.R. Hambrecht analyst Matther Kather's report initiating coverage of Apple (AAPL) with a widely reported "buy" and a target price of $110. But what caught my eye was how well Apple laptops are doing, not just relative to Mac desktop sales (which are sort of anemic), but relative to the rest of the laptop market as well.

Drawing on Apple's filings, Kather reports that its notebook sales in the U.S. grew 49.3%Picture_34 over the past year and that the company now has a 7.1% share of the notebook market in the U.S., up 2% from last year. (Worldwide notebook market share is a less impressive 3.9% and growth there is essentially flat.)

This is important as laptops increasingly replace desktops as the machine of choice, especially among higher-income mobile workers. iPods are still Apple's biggest source of revenue, representing  nearly half of its 1st quarter revenue. But laptops are No. 2, with more than 20% of revenue in that quarter.

Hambrecht anticipates Apple notebooks sales growing another 29% in 2007. (link to pdf of full report  here)

Is Google Making Its Own Mobile Device?

Picture_33 That's the speculation at Macworld UK this morning based on a Google (GOOG) job posting for an analog engineer/designer whose qualifications include programming, circuit modeling, power supply design and "ham radio license a plus."

"To improve accessibility," the posting says, "Google is experimenting with a few wireless communications systems including some completely novel concepts. We are building a small team of top-notch Logic Designers and Analog Designers aimed at nothing less than making the entire world's information accessible from anywhere for free. Are you in?" (link)

Macworld quotes Phil Taylor, senior analyst with Strategy Analytics. "In the wake of Apple and some other big-name brands moving into the handset business, why not Google?" said  Taylor. (full text here)

The trick for Google and its new analog engineer would be to make something that stands out in a crowded market where the bar has just been raised dauntingly high by Apple's (AAPL) iPhone.

Palm (PALM), meanwhile, has hired Paul Mercer, a top Silicon Valley designer, to work on its own answer to the iPhone, according to John Markoff  in today's NY Times (link, sub required). Mercer was the lead designer of Version 7 of the Macintosh finder and helped Samsung design the Z5, one of South Korea's best selling MP3 players.

ADDENDUM: Open Gardens today has a story with lots more details about the Google phone, including a "team of about 100" working under Andy Rubin and what purports to be a photo of the device. Link here.

March 08, 2007

How Flash Prices Are Driving Apple Releases

Picture_31_1 Rumors of the launch this year of a new Apple (AAPL) subnotebook with flash memory instead of a hard drive made their way up the business news food chain from MarketWatch to Bloomberg to the Wall Street Journal (sub required) today. But there's lots more detail in the report that started it all yesterday by senior analyst Shaw Wu at American Technology Research. Among Wu's findings:

--Timing of the new subnotebook, which Apple would prefer to introduce in the second half of 2007, depends on prices of NAND flash memory falling and could be delayed.

-- Hard drive storage is still cheaper than flash memory by a factor of 7 or 8X, according to Wu, but that's down from 10X and falling fast. 32 gigs of flash today costs about $160, compared to $22 for the same capacity of hard drive memory.

--Although Apple has replaced hard drives with flash everywhere in its iPod line except the video iPod, price constraints are likely to keep the vPod  flash free until 2008.

--A widescreen version of the video iPod could be introduced at any time, but Apple is likely to postpone it until after the iPhone arrives in or around June so as not to steal from the latter's thunder

--Based on what Wu calls Apple's "four-pronged vertically integrated play" (iPod + iTunes, Mac, Apple TV and iPhone), he's advising clients to buy ahead of the coming stock surge (not to be confused with the troop surge). He sees the stock hitting $115 in the next 6 to 12 months.

Microsoft Goes After JPEG

Picture_30_1 The standard JPEG image file format is far from perfect, but it has the virtue of being open. Not so Microsoft's HD Photo, formally announced at the Photo Marketing Association (PMA) '07 International Convention and Trade Show in Las Vegas yesterday.

According to Microsoft (MSFT), the format formerly known as Windows Media Photo offers compression with up to twice the efficiency of JPEG with fewer damaging artifacts and produces higher-quality images that are one-half the file size. A beta version of the HD Photo plug-in for Adobe Photoshop (Windows only) is available now at the Microsoft Download Center. Support for Vista, Windows NT and Apple (AAPL) OS X promised real soon now. (MacNN report here)

This is the oldest and most profitable trick in Microsoft's playbook. Replace an open standard with a slightly improved but patented format and release it with a licensing agreement that encourages wide adoption but forbids licensees from putting its code in any products or systems that have strong copyleft provisions. Here's the language, copied from Widipedia:

2. c. Distribution Restrictions. You may not ... modify or distribute the source code of any Distributable Code so that any part of it becomes subject to an Excluded License. An Excluded License is one that requires, as a condition of use, modification or distribution, that the code be disclosed or distributed in source code form; or others have the right to modify it. (link)

For further information, see Bill Crow's HD Photo Blog

Apple Young, Microsoft Old

It's always reassuring when hard data support soft impressions. Here we have Hitwise data reinforcing the notion that Apple's (AAPL) core audience (no pun intended) is younger and Microsoft's (MSFT), like the readers of deadwood publications, is headed for the grave. The chart is courtesy of iMedia Connection, which links the data to each company's marketing strategies and the casting of their TV ads. See here.
Picture_27_1

iPhone vs. Vista: Where's the Wow?

This is one of those picture-worth-a-thousand-words stories. A chart published in iMedia Connection last week compared Web searches for iPhone vs. Vista. It's may be an apples and oranges comparison, but in the battle for buzz, Apple (AAPL) clearly won this round over Microsoft (MSFT). Full article here.
Picture_29_2  

March 07, 2007

Mac v. Clones: New Battle for the Desktop

Picture_26_1 Three quarters of the way through a long and well-thought out analysis of Apple's (AAPL) position in the PC market, RoughlyDrafted gets to the nub of the matter:

The real battle for the desktop isn't between Mac OS X and Vista, but rather between Apple's Mac and the Windows-based products offered by PC hardware makers.

In other words, with Dell, HP, Gateway and Toshiba. And although the 10 million Macs sold in the past two years can't compare with the flood of low-cost machines moved by Dell and HP, which sold 38 million PCs each in 2006 alone, Mac's profits can. This is nicely laid out in the piece with a series of eye-opening charts. My favorite shows that, as RoughlyDrafted puts it ...

...Apple earned nearly half as much net income with its 5% share the market as HP and Dell together, with their combined 55% share of the US PC market: $1 billion for Apple vs $2.2 billion for HP and Dell together!

Picture_22_1

























A second chart shows 4th Q results for 2006 and includes Gateway, which actually lost money all year, despite shipping more PCs than Apple and capturing a larger percentage of market share.

Picture_25_1










It's an interesting piece. There's lots more here.

BBC "iPlayer" Challenges iTunes

Picture_20_2 Chafing under Apple's (AAPL) growing dominance of digital music and TV, the commercial arm of the BBC is launching its own "iPlayer." According to the Financial Times, the BBC yesterday invited other British broadcasters to put their programming on the British-made platform, which could be ready as early as this fall (subscription required link).

The advantage of breaking out of the closed iPod/iTunes ecosystem, BBC executive John Smith told attendees at a FT digital media conference in London, would be that on iPlayer, the content providers could set their own prices, whether pay per view or ad-supported.

"Imagine some third-party controlling the positions and pricing of all our content on the web so we might get, say, 50 per cent of £1.99 whether it's Planet Earth that cost millions to produce or daytime cookery that cost a few thousands," Smith told attendees. (more on MacNN here) Background from Tom Dunmore at Stuff.tv here.

Further reading:
BBC unveils the iPlayer
Apple v. Europe and Scandanavia

March 06, 2007

Revival: Why I Got Fired From Apple

Picture_20_1 Am I the last to hear about this?

One of the featured items on YouTube this week is a 6 minute 43 second video called "Why I Got Fired from Apple Computer" by Erik Ott. As of this afternoon it had been viewed 663,885 times, drawn 3,199 comments and been favorited (is that really a verb?) 2,541 times.

For those of you who haven't heard, Ott was a phone rep at the company's Canadian desk who read a poem at an Apple (AAPL) talent show, drew enthusiastic applause from the audience, and was summarily fired, without explanation, two days later.

If you haven't seen the video, here's the link.

What I found bizarre, having just started  writing in this space, that such a thing could happen without comment in the Mac blogosphere, even in the Secret Diary of Steve Jobs.

So I'm indebted to Michael Singer at InformationWeek, who explains that the incident actually took place in November 2005, has been kicking around the Web ever since, but inexplicably became a feature item on YouTube last Friday.

The video isn't new. The file has been seen in rotation in various forms since late in 2005. Ott said he tucked the video deep in a corner of his site to show to friends but someone got hold of and posted it on Google Video in 2005. It has since made the rounds on Digg last year and currently started playing on YouTube on Friday as a Featured Video. (full story here)

Apple's Asteroid: A "Canary Trap"?

Picture_19_3 Was the lawsuit filed by Steve Jobs against two bloggers for publishing corporate secrets really a smokescreen to cover up a plumbing operation launched to root out leakers within Apple (AAPL)? That's the Tom Clancy-like theory proposed by Leander Kahney at Wired News today. The lawsuit appeared to have backfired in January when Apple was ordered to pay the $700,000 in legal fees to the two websites that published details of an Apple product code-named "Asteroid." But maybe that was just the cost of keeping the operation secret.

Kahney's source, an Apple programmer who would not reveal his name for fear of being fired, believes that Asteroid never existed and was simply bait for a spymaster's "canary trap." As Kahney tells it:

It's an espionage trick used to find the source of a leak: Feed each person in the organization a slightly different piece of information, and see who sings. The name comes from the novels of Tom Clancy; British spies called the tactic a "barium meal," after a drink given before stomach X-rays to illuminate the digestive system.

"That's how devious they are," the programmer said. "They wouldn't do it with a real product. There's too many details and too many legitimate ways information could leak out. But with a phony product, Steve knows what information went where. The proof is that the product hasn't come out -- and still hasn't."

The full story at Wired News here.

Vista: Even Intel Is Holding Back

Et tu, Intel? On the heels of the Dept. of Transportation memo forbidding tens of thousands of U.S. government workers from upgrading to Microsoft's (MSFT) Vista, Intel CEO Paul Otellini told financial analysts at the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference in San Francisco that even his IT department is holding back.

"I know of no organization that is going to adopt it before Service Pack 1 is out -- that's in the second half of this year -- and that includes us. Starting in the second half of this year we'll do a modest deployment, and continue into next year. That's the large company approach for all the people I've talked to."

For Apple (AAPL) users he adds:

"I think people will like Vista as they play with it -- it's nicer and prettier. For those who use Macs, it's closer to the Mac than we've seen for a long time."

More Ortellini remarks from Macworld UK here.

March 05, 2007

Strong iPod and Mac Demand in U.K.

Macworld UK today reports strong demand for Apple (AAPL) across the pond in most of the company's product lines.

"iPod sales remain strong, with an astonishing 120,000+ sales of full-size iPods (combining 30GB and 60GB black and white models) reported across the UK so far during the current quarter, it has been claimed.

iPod nano sales are even stronger, with close to 200,000 units sold so far this quarter, Macworld has learned. iPod shuffle sales also appear very strong, with an estimated 140,000 units sold so far in the UK." (full report here)

Shortages were reported in several products, including the 1.66Mhz Mac mini and iLife '06. Demand for th